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Rogba Tataouine vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer — Ligue 2 2020

Rogba Tataouine
Rogba Tataouine
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
4/19/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Néjib Khattab

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rogba Tataouine31%
×Draw27%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rogba Tataouine
1.13
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.38

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer creates 22% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 27 away

creates per match

Rogba Tataouine
1.06
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.26

allows per match

Rogba Tataouine
1.50
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.19

finishing

Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogba Tataouine ↓

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rogba Tataouine or draw
57%
Rogba Tataouine or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
73%
Draw or Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
69%

Winning margin

Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+
12%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals
68%
Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals
31%
Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals
11%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals
75%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals
40%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)
42%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogba Tataouine at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogba Tataouine attack 1.06 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 1.26 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rogba Tataouine scores more
31%
level
27%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more
43%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Rogba Tataouine 1–5 Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer beat Rogba Tataouine 5-1 in Ligue 2 on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Néjib Khattab in Tataouine.