Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Rogba Tataouine — Ligue 2 2020

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rogba Tataouine
Rogba Tataouine
12/7/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer70%
×Draw21%
Rogba Tataouine9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
1.81
Rogba Tataouine
0.46

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer creates 293% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 36 away

creates per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
2.12
Rogba Tataouine
0.56

allows per match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
0.35
Rogba Tataouine
1.50

finishing

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer+0.00on par
Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer ↓

Rogba Tataouine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or draw
91%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer or Rogba Tataouine
79%
Draw or Rogba Tataouine
30%

Winning margin

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer wins by 2+
43%
Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 1+ goals
84%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 2+ goals
54%
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer 3+ goals
27%
Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals
37%
Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals
8%
Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer (draw refunded)
89%
Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.35 · 26 matches

Rogba Tataouine away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer attack 2.12 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.81

Rogba Tataouine attack 0.56 + Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer scores more
70%
level
21%
Rogba Tataouine scores more
9%

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer vs Rogba Tataouine

Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer beat Rogba Tataouine 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Sakiet Eddaier in Sakiet Eddaïer.