Rogba Tataouine 1–2 EM Mahdia: Result & Stats

Rogba Tataouine

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

EM Mahdia

K. Aouichi 84' (pen)

B. Chaouech 72'

A. Laamiri 48'

5/25/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 23Stade Néjib Khattab

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Rogba Tataouine37%

×Draw29%

EM Mahdia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rogba TataouineExpected goals in this matchEM Mahdia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.11

Rogba Tataouine

1.17

EM Mahdia

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 55 away

1.06

creates per match

0.73

1.50

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Rogba Tataouine

1.06

EM Mahdia

0.73

allows per match

Rogba Tataouine

1.50

EM Mahdia

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par

EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogba Tataouine ↓

EM Mahdia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rogba Tataouine or draw

66%

Rogba Tataouine or EM Mahdia

71%

Draw or EM Mahdia

63%

Winning margin

Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+

16%

EM Mahdia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals

69%

Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals

33%

Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals

11%

EM Mahdia 1+ goals

67%

EM Mahdia 2+ goals

30%

EM Mahdia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)

52%

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogba Tataouine at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

EM Mahdia away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogba Tataouine attack 1.06 + EM Mahdia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

EM Mahdia attack 0.73 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rogba Tataouine scores more

37%

level

29%

EM Mahdia scores more

34%

Rogba Tataouine at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rogba Tataouine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

A. Laamiri

72'

B. Chaouech

84'

K. AouichiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff