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EM Mahdia vs Rogba Tataouine — Ligue 2 2020

EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rogba Tataouine
Rogba Tataouine
12/10/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade Ahmed Khouaja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

EM Mahdia48%
×Draw28%
Rogba Tataouine24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EM Mahdia
1.35
Rogba Tataouine
0.85

EM Mahdia creates 59% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 36 away

creates per match

EM Mahdia
1.21
Rogba Tataouine
0.56

allows per match

EM Mahdia
1.14
Rogba Tataouine
1.50

finishing

EM Mahdia+0.00on par
Rogba Tataouine+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EM Mahdia ↓

Rogba Tataouine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

EM Mahdia or draw
76%
EM Mahdia or Rogba Tataouine
72%
Draw or Rogba Tataouine
52%

Winning margin

EM Mahdia wins by 2+
23%
Rogba Tataouine wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

EM Mahdia 1+ goals
74%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
39%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
15%
Rogba Tataouine 1+ goals
57%
Rogba Tataouine 2+ goals
21%
Rogba Tataouine 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
67%
Rogba Tataouine (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EM Mahdia at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.14 · 56 matches

Rogba Tataouine away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EM Mahdia attack 1.21 + Rogba Tataouine defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Rogba Tataouine attack 0.56 + EM Mahdia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

EM Mahdia scores more
48%
level
28%
Rogba Tataouine scores more
24%

EM Mahdia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "EM Mahdia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EM Mahdia vs Rogba Tataouine

Rogba Tataouine beat EM Mahdia 1-0 in Ligue 2 on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Ahmed Khouaja in Mahdia.