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Rogaška vs NK Domzale — 1. SNL 2026

Rogaška
Rogaška
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
NK Domzale
NK Domzale
11/25/20231. SNL1. SNL · Round 3Športni center Rogaška Slatina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rogaška36%
×Draw25%
NK Domzale39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rogaška
1.36
NK Domzale
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 118 away

creates per match

Rogaška
1.06
NK Domzale
1.33

allows per match

Rogaška
1.50
NK Domzale
1.67

finishing

Rogaška+0.00on par
NK Domzale+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogaška ↓

NK Domzale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rogaška or draw
61%
Rogaška or NK Domzale
75%
Draw or NK Domzale
64%

Winning margin

Rogaška wins by 2+
16%
NK Domzale wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Rogaška 1+ goals
74%
Rogaška 2+ goals
39%
Rogaška 3+ goals
16%
NK Domzale 1+ goals
76%
NK Domzale 2+ goals
41%
NK Domzale 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rogaška (draw refunded)
48%
NK Domzale (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogaška at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

NK Domzale away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogaška attack 1.06 + NK Domzale defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.36

NK Domzale attack 1.33 + Rogaška defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rogaška scores more
36%
level
25%
NK Domzale scores more
39%

NK Domzale at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "NK Domzale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rogaška vs NK Domzale

NK Domzale beat Rogaška 2-1 in 1. SNL on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Športni center Rogaška Slatina in Rogaška Slatina.