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NK Domzale vs Rogaška — 1. SNL 2026

NK Domzale
NK Domzale
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rogaška
Rogaška
10/8/20231. SNL1. SNL · Round 12Športni Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

NK Domzale49%
×Draw24%
Rogaška27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NK Domzale
1.68
Rogaška
1.19

NK Domzale creates 41% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 18 away

creates per match

NK Domzale
1.30
Rogaška
1.00

allows per match

NK Domzale
1.39
Rogaška
2.06

finishing

NK Domzale+0.00on par
Rogaška+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NK Domzale ↓

Rogaška →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

NK Domzale or draw
73%
NK Domzale or Rogaška
76%
Draw or Rogaška
51%

Winning margin

NK Domzale wins by 2+
26%
Rogaška wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

NK Domzale 1+ goals
81%
NK Domzale 2+ goals
50%
NK Domzale 3+ goals
24%
Rogaška 1+ goals
70%
Rogaška 2+ goals
33%
Rogaška 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

NK Domzale (draw refunded)
64%
Rogaška (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NK Domzale at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.39 · 118 matches

Rogaška away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NK Domzale attack 1.30 + Rogaška defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.68

Rogaška attack 1.00 + NK Domzale defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

NK Domzale scores more
49%
level
24%
Rogaška scores more
27%

NK Domzale at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "NK Domzale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NK Domzale vs Rogaška

NK Domzale beat Rogaška 3-0 in 1. SNL on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Športni Park in Domžale.