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Rogaška vs Aluminij — 1. SNL 2026

Rogaška
Rogaška
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Aluminij
Aluminij
12/16/20231. SNL1. SNL · Round 17Športni center Rogaška Slatina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rogaška40%
×Draw26%
Aluminij35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rogaška
1.40
Aluminij
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 90 away

creates per match

Rogaška
1.06
Aluminij
1.07

allows per match

Rogaška
1.50
Aluminij
1.74

finishing

Rogaška+0.00on par
Aluminij+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rogaška ↓

Aluminij →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rogaška or draw
65%
Rogaška or Aluminij
74%
Draw or Aluminij
60%

Winning margin

Rogaška wins by 2+
18%
Aluminij wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rogaška 1+ goals
75%
Rogaška 2+ goals
41%
Rogaška 3+ goals
17%
Aluminij 1+ goals
72%
Aluminij 2+ goals
37%
Aluminij 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rogaška (draw refunded)
53%
Aluminij (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rogaška at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

Aluminij away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.74 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rogaška attack 1.06 + Aluminij defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.40

Aluminij attack 1.07 + Rogaška defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rogaška scores more
40%
level
26%
Aluminij scores more
35%

Rogaška at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rogaška will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rogaška vs Aluminij

Aluminij beat Rogaška 1-0 in 1. SNL on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Športni center Rogaška Slatina in Rogaška Slatina.