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Aluminij vs Rogaška — 1. SNL 2026

Aluminij
Aluminij
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rogaška
Rogaška
3/13/20241. SNL1. SNL · Round 26Športni Park Aluminij

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aluminij46%
×Draw24%
Rogaška30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminij
1.64
Rogaška
1.27

Aluminij creates 29% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 18 away

creates per match

Aluminij
1.21
Rogaška
1.00

allows per match

Aluminij
1.53
Rogaška
2.06

finishing

Aluminij+0.00on par
Rogaška+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminij ↓

Rogaška →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aluminij or draw
70%
Aluminij or Rogaška
76%
Draw or Rogaška
54%

Winning margin

Aluminij wins by 2+
24%
Rogaška wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aluminij 1+ goals
81%
Aluminij 2+ goals
49%
Aluminij 3+ goals
23%
Rogaška 1+ goals
72%
Rogaška 2+ goals
36%
Rogaška 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aluminij (draw refunded)
61%
Rogaška (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminij at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

Rogaška away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminij attack 1.21 + Rogaška defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rogaška attack 1.00 + Aluminij defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aluminij scores more
46%
level
24%
Rogaška scores more
30%

Aluminij at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aluminij will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aluminij vs Rogaška

Rogaška beat Aluminij 1-0 in 1. SNL on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Športni Park Aluminij in Kidričevo.