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Rodopa Smolyan vs Levski Karlovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
8/31/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 5Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Rodopa Smolyan59%
×Draw21%
Levski Karlovo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodopa Smolyan
2.02
Levski Karlovo
1.07

Rodopa Smolyan creates 89% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 136 away

creates per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.81
Levski Karlovo
1.04

allows per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.10
Levski Karlovo
2.22

finishing

Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par
Levski Karlovo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodopa Smolyan ↓

Levski Karlovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rodopa Smolyan or draw
80%
Rodopa Smolyan or Levski Karlovo
79%
Draw or Levski Karlovo
41%

Winning margin

Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
36%
Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
87%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
60%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
33%
Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
66%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
29%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
75%
Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodopa Smolyan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

Levski Karlovo away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.22 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.81 + Levski Karlovo defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.02

Levski Karlovo attack 1.04 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rodopa Smolyan scores more
59%
level
21%
Levski Karlovo scores more
20%

Rodopa Smolyan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rodopa Smolyan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodopa Smolyan vs Levski Karlovo

Rodopa Smolyan and Levski Karlovo drew 2-2 in Third League - Southeast on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Smolian.