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Levski Karlovo vs Rodopa Smolyan — Third League - Southeast 2018

Levski Karlovo
Levski Karlovo
FT
2 – 2
Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
3/15/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 24Stadion Vasil Levski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Levski Karlovo52%
×Draw24%
Rodopa Smolyan25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Levski Karlovo
1.74
Rodopa Smolyan
1.13

Levski Karlovo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 120 away

creates per match

Levski Karlovo
1.51
Rodopa Smolyan
1.14

allows per match

Levski Karlovo
1.13
Rodopa Smolyan
1.97

finishing

Levski Karlovo+0.00on par
Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Levski Karlovo ↓

Rodopa Smolyan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Levski Karlovo or draw
75%
Levski Karlovo or Rodopa Smolyan
76%
Draw or Rodopa Smolyan
48%

Winning margin

Levski Karlovo wins by 2+
28%
Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Levski Karlovo 1+ goals
82%
Levski Karlovo 2+ goals
52%
Levski Karlovo 3+ goals
25%
Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
68%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
31%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Levski Karlovo (draw refunded)
68%
Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Levski Karlovo at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.13 · 135 matches

Rodopa Smolyan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.97 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Levski Karlovo attack 1.51 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.74

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.14 + Levski Karlovo defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Levski Karlovo scores more
52%
level
24%
Rodopa Smolyan scores more
25%

Levski Karlovo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Levski Karlovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Levski Karlovo vs Rodopa Smolyan

Levski Karlovo and Rodopa Smolyan drew 2-2 in Third League - Southeast on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo.