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Rodopa Smolyan vs Haskovo — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
FT
1 – 2
Haskovo
Haskovo
5/8/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 30Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Rodopa Smolyan54%
×Draw24%
Haskovo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodopa Smolyan
1.72
Haskovo
0.99

Rodopa Smolyan creates 74% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 47 away

creates per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.81
Haskovo
0.87

allows per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.10
Haskovo
1.62

finishing

Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par
Haskovo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodopa Smolyan ↓

Haskovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rodopa Smolyan or draw
78%
Rodopa Smolyan or Haskovo
76%
Draw or Haskovo
46%

Winning margin

Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
30%
Haskovo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
82%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
51%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
25%
Haskovo 1+ goals
63%
Haskovo 2+ goals
26%
Haskovo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
71%
Haskovo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodopa Smolyan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

Haskovo away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.62 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.81 + Haskovo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.72

Haskovo attack 0.87 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rodopa Smolyan scores more
54%
level
24%
Haskovo scores more
22%

Rodopa Smolyan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rodopa Smolyan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Rodopa Smolyan 1–2 Haskovo

Haskovo beat Rodopa Smolyan 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Smolian.