Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Haskovo vs Rodopa Smolyan — Third League - Southeast 2018

Haskovo
Haskovo
FT
1 – 1
Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
10/31/2020Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 13Stadion Dimitar Kanev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Haskovo50%
×Draw24%
Rodopa Smolyan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haskovo
1.73
Rodopa Smolyan
1.19

Haskovo creates 45% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 120 away

creates per match

Haskovo
1.50
Rodopa Smolyan
1.14

allows per match

Haskovo
1.24
Rodopa Smolyan
1.97

finishing

Haskovo+0.00on par
Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haskovo ↓

Rodopa Smolyan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Haskovo or draw
74%
Haskovo or Rodopa Smolyan
76%
Draw or Rodopa Smolyan
50%

Winning margin

Haskovo wins by 2+
27%
Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Haskovo 1+ goals
82%
Haskovo 2+ goals
52%
Haskovo 3+ goals
25%
Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
70%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
33%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Haskovo (draw refunded)
65%
Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haskovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.24 · 46 matches

Rodopa Smolyan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.97 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haskovo attack 1.50 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.73

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.14 + Haskovo defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Haskovo scores more
50%
level
24%
Rodopa Smolyan scores more
26%

Haskovo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Haskovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Haskovo vs Rodopa Smolyan

Haskovo and Rodopa Smolyan drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Dimitar Kanev in Haskovo.