Rodopa Smolyan 2–2 Botev Plovdiv II: Result & Stats

Rodopa Smolyan

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Botev Plovdiv II

8/19/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 3Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rodopa Smolyan43%

×Draw25%

Botev Plovdiv II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodopa SmolyanExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.29

Rodopa Smolyan

1.54

Botev Plovdiv II

1.29

Rodopa Smolyan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 19 away

1.81

creates per match

1.47

1.10

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Rodopa Smolyan

1.81

Botev Plovdiv II

1.47

allows per match

Rodopa Smolyan

1.10

Botev Plovdiv II

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodopa Smolyan ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Rodopa Smolyan or draw

68%

Rodopa Smolyan or Botev Plovdiv II

75%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv II

57%

Winning margin

Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+

21%

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals

79%

Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals

45%

Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals

20%

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

72%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

37%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)

57%

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodopa Smolyan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.81 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.54

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.47 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rodopa Smolyan scores more

43%

level

25%

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

32%

Rodopa Smolyan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rodopa Smolyan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff