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Botev Plovdiv II vs Rodopa Smolyan — Third League - Southeast 2018

Botev Plovdiv II
Botev Plovdiv II
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
3/3/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 22Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II61%
×Draw19%
Rodopa Smolyan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv II
2.46
Rodopa Smolyan
1.38

Botev Plovdiv II creates 78% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 120 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II
2.95
Rodopa Smolyan
1.14

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II
1.63
Rodopa Smolyan
1.97

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par
Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Rodopa Smolyan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw
79%
Botev Plovdiv II or Rodopa Smolyan
81%
Draw or Rodopa Smolyan
39%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+
39%
Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals
91%
Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals
70%
Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals
44%
Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
75%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
40%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
75%
Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Rodopa Smolyan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.97 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 2.95 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.46

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.14 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more
61%
level
19%
Rodopa Smolyan scores more
21%

Botev Plovdiv II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Botev Plovdiv II 5–0 Rodopa Smolyan

Botev Plovdiv II beat Rodopa Smolyan 5-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex in Plovdiv.