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Rodopa Smolyan vs Borislav 2009 — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
FT
1 – 1
Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
4/24/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 28Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Rodopa Smolyan64%
×Draw20%
Borislav 200917%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodopa Smolyan
2.17
Borislav 2009
1.01

Rodopa Smolyan creates 115% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 79 away

creates per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.81
Borislav 2009
0.91

allows per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.10
Borislav 2009
2.52

finishing

Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par
Borislav 2009+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodopa Smolyan ↓

Borislav 2009 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rodopa Smolyan or draw
83%
Rodopa Smolyan or Borislav 2009
80%
Draw or Borislav 2009
36%

Winning margin

Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
40%
Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
89%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
64%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
36%
Borislav 2009 1+ goals
64%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
27%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
79%
Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodopa Smolyan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

Borislav 2009 away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.52 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.81 + Borislav 2009 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 2.17

Borislav 2009 attack 0.91 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Rodopa Smolyan scores more
64%
level
20%
Borislav 2009 scores more
17%

Rodopa Smolyan at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Rodopa Smolyan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodopa Smolyan vs Borislav 2009

Rodopa Smolyan and Borislav 2009 drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Smolian.