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Borislav 2009 vs Rodopa Smolyan — Third League - Southeast 2018

Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
FT
2 – 1
Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
8/21/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 3Stadion Borislav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Borislav 200951%
×Draw23%
Rodopa Smolyan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borislav 2009
1.78
Rodopa Smolyan
1.21

Borislav 2009 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 120 away

creates per match

Borislav 2009
1.59
Rodopa Smolyan
1.14

allows per match

Borislav 2009
1.29
Rodopa Smolyan
1.97

finishing

Borislav 2009+0.00on par
Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borislav 2009 ↓

Rodopa Smolyan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Borislav 2009 or draw
74%
Borislav 2009 or Rodopa Smolyan
77%
Draw or Rodopa Smolyan
49%

Winning margin

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
28%
Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Borislav 2009 1+ goals
83%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
53%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
26%
Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
70%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
34%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
66%
Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borislav 2009 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Rodopa Smolyan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.97 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borislav 2009 attack 1.59 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.78

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.14 + Borislav 2009 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Borislav 2009 scores more
51%
level
23%
Rodopa Smolyan scores more
26%

Borislav 2009 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Borislav 2009 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Borislav 2009 2–1 Rodopa Smolyan

Borislav 2009 beat Rodopa Smolyan 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Borislav in Parvomay.