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Rodopa Smolyan vs Beroe II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
FT
7 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Beroe II
Beroe II
11/11/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 17Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Rodopa Smolyan68%
×Draw18%
Beroe II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodopa Smolyan
2.29
Beroe II
0.93

Rodopa Smolyan creates 146% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 55 away

creates per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.81
Beroe II
0.76

allows per match

Rodopa Smolyan
1.10
Beroe II
2.78

finishing

Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par
Beroe II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodopa Smolyan ↓

Beroe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rodopa Smolyan or draw
86%
Rodopa Smolyan or Beroe II
82%
Draw or Beroe II
32%

Winning margin

Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
44%
Beroe II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
90%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
66%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
40%
Beroe II 1+ goals
61%
Beroe II 2+ goals
24%
Beroe II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
83%
Beroe II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodopa Smolyan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.10 · 118 matches

Beroe II away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.81 + Beroe II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.29

Beroe II attack 0.76 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Rodopa Smolyan scores more
68%
level
18%
Beroe II scores more
14%

Rodopa Smolyan at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Rodopa Smolyan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rodopa Smolyan 7 – 0 Beroe II

Rodopa Smolyan beat Beroe II 7-0 in Third League - Southeast on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Smolian.