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Beroe II vs Rodopa Smolyan — Third League - Southeast 2018

Beroe II
Beroe II
FT
0 – 2
Rodopa Smolyan
Rodopa Smolyan
3/31/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 26Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Beroe II41%
×Draw24%
Rodopa Smolyan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beroe II
1.59
Rodopa Smolyan
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 120 away

creates per match

Beroe II
1.22
Rodopa Smolyan
1.14

allows per match

Beroe II
1.78
Rodopa Smolyan
1.97

finishing

Beroe II+0.00on par
Rodopa Smolyan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beroe II ↓

Rodopa Smolyan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Beroe II or draw
65%
Beroe II or Rodopa Smolyan
76%
Draw or Rodopa Smolyan
59%

Winning margin

Beroe II wins by 2+
20%
Rodopa Smolyan wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Beroe II 1+ goals
80%
Beroe II 2+ goals
47%
Beroe II 3+ goals
21%
Rodopa Smolyan 1+ goals
77%
Rodopa Smolyan 2+ goals
43%
Rodopa Smolyan 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Beroe II (draw refunded)
54%
Rodopa Smolyan (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beroe II at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

Rodopa Smolyan away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.97 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beroe II attack 1.22 + Rodopa Smolyan defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.59

Rodopa Smolyan attack 1.14 + Beroe II defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Beroe II scores more
41%
level
24%
Rodopa Smolyan scores more
35%

Beroe II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Beroe II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Beroe II 0 – 2 Rodopa Smolyan

Rodopa Smolyan beat Beroe II 2-0 in Third League - Southeast on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Stara Zagora.