Rodina Moskva 5–0 Metallurg Vidnoye: Result & Stats

Rodina Moskva

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Metallurg Vidnoye

9/26/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rodina Moskva81%

×Draw12%

Metallurg Vidnoye7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodina MoskvaExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Vidnoye

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

0.79

Rodina Moskva

3.00

Metallurg Vidnoye

0.79

Rodina Moskva creates 280% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

3.13

creates per match

0.77

0.81

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Rodina Moskva

3.13

Metallurg Vidnoye

0.77

allows per match

Rodina Moskva

0.81

Metallurg Vidnoye

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw

93%

Rodina Moskva or Metallurg Vidnoye

88%

Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye

19%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+

61%

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals

95%

Rodina Moskva 2+ goals

79%

Rodina Moskva 3+ goals

56%

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals

55%

Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals

19%

Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)

92%

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 3.13 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 3.00

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more

81%

level

12%

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more

7%

Rodina Moskva at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff