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Metallurg Vidnoye vs Rodina Moskva — Second League - Group 3 2020

Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
7/23/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Metallurg Vidnoye22%
×Draw21%
Rodina Moskva57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.21
Rodina Moskva
2.07

Rodina Moskva creates 71% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.53
Rodina Moskva
1.81

allows per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
2.33
Rodina Moskva
0.88

finishing

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Vidnoye ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Metallurg Vidnoye or draw
43%
Metallurg Vidnoye or Rodina Moskva
79%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
78%

Winning margin

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
9%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
70%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
34%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
12%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
87%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
61%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
28%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Vidnoye at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.33 · 30 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 1.53 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.21

Rodina Moskva attack 1.81 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
22%
level
21%
Rodina Moskva scores more
57%

Rodina Moskva at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Metallurg Vidnoye 0–4 Rodina Moskva

Rodina Moskva beat Metallurg Vidnoye 4-0 in Second League - Group 3 on July 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe in Vidnoye.