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Rodina Moskva vs Leningradets — Second League - Group 2 2020

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Leningradets
Leningradets
6/15/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rodina Moskva32%
×Draw24%
Leningradets44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva
1.39
Leningradets
1.67

Leningradets creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva
2.00
Leningradets
1.57

allows per match

Rodina Moskva
1.77
Leningradets
0.78

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par
Leningradets+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Leningradets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw
56%
Rodina Moskva or Leningradets
76%
Draw or Leningradets
68%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
14%
Leningradets wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
75%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
40%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
16%
Leningradets 1+ goals
81%
Leningradets 2+ goals
50%
Leningradets 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
42%
Leningradets (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Leningradets away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.78 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 2.00 + Leningradets defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Leningradets attack 1.57 + Rodina Moskva defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more
32%
level
24%
Leningradets scores more
44%

Leningradets at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodina Moskva vs Leningradets

Leningradets beat Rodina Moskva 5-1 in Second League - Group 2 on June 15, 2021.