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Leningradets vs Rodina Moskva — Second League - Group 2 2020

Leningradets
Leningradets
FT
5 – 2
HT: 4 – 2
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
8/9/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Roshchino Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Leningradets53%
×Draw22%
Rodina Moskva25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leningradets
1.94
Rodina Moskva
1.25

Leningradets creates 55% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 14 away

creates per match

Leningradets
2.24
Rodina Moskva
1.71

allows per match

Leningradets
0.78
Rodina Moskva
1.64

finishing

Leningradets+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leningradets ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Leningradets or draw
75%
Leningradets or Rodina Moskva
78%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
47%

Winning margin

Leningradets wins by 2+
31%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Leningradets 1+ goals
86%
Leningradets 2+ goals
58%
Leningradets 3+ goals
30%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
71%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
36%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Leningradets (draw refunded)
68%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leningradets at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.78 · 45 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leningradets attack 2.24 + Rodina Moskva defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.94

Rodina Moskva attack 1.71 + Leningradets defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Leningradets scores more
53%
level
22%
Rodina Moskva scores more
25%

Leningradets at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Leningradets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leningradets vs Rodina Moskva

Leningradets beat Rodina Moskva 5-2 in Second League - Group 2 on August 9, 2020.

The match was played at Roshchino Arena in Roshchino.