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Rodina Moskva vs FC Sochi — First League 2018

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
FC Sochi
FC Sochi
A. Kontsevoy 90+5'
P. Guèye 56'
A. Maksimenko 23'
P. Meleshin 72' (pen)
4/6/2025First LeagueFirst League · Round 27Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rodina Moskva40%
×Draw27%
FC Sochi33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva
1.31
FC Sochi
1.18

Rodina Moskva creates 11% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 38 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva
1.53
FC Sochi
1.45

allows per match

Rodina Moskva
0.91
FC Sochi
1.08

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par
FC Sochi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

FC Sochi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw
67%
Rodina Moskva or FC Sochi
73%
Draw or FC Sochi
60%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
18%
FC Sochi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
73%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
38%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
14%
FC Sochi 1+ goals
69%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
33%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
54%
FC Sochi (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.91 · 68 matches

FC Sochi away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 1.53 + FC Sochi defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

FC Sochi attack 1.45 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more
40%
level
27%
FC Sochi scores more
33%

Rodina Moskva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
A. Maksimenko
56'
P. Guèye
63'
M. Barišič← A. Gordyushenko
63'
M. Kramarič← V. Pisarskiy
63'
K. Nikitin← K. Zaika
68'
A. Kontsevoy← A. Koryan
72'
N. Burmistrov← R. Pasevich
72'
P. MeleshinPenalty
82'
M. Kaynov← K. Kravtsov
82'
R. Bart← P. Meleshin
83'
I. Timoshenko← P. Guèye
90+5'
A. Kontsevoy

Statistics

RodinaFC
Discipline
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

First League: Rodina Moskva 3–1 FC Sochi

Rodina Moskva beat FC Sochi 3-1 in First League on April 6, 2025.

Goals: A. Maksimenko (23'), P. Guèye (56'), P. Meleshin (72' pen), A. Kontsevoy (90+5').

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.