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FC Sochi vs Rodina Moskva — First League 2018

FC Sochi
FC Sochi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
M. Kramarič 39'
10/19/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

FC Sochi44%
×Draw27%
Rodina Moskva29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Sochi
1.41
Rodina Moskva
1.09

FC Sochi creates 29% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 68 away

creates per match

FC Sochi
1.84
Rodina Moskva
1.32

allows per match

FC Sochi
0.86
Rodina Moskva
0.97

finishing

FC Sochi+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Sochi ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Sochi or draw
71%
FC Sochi or Rodina Moskva
73%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
56%

Winning margin

FC Sochi wins by 2+
21%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Sochi 1+ goals
76%
FC Sochi 2+ goals
41%
FC Sochi 3+ goals
17%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
66%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
30%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Sochi (draw refunded)
60%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Sochi at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.86 · 37 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Sochi attack 1.84 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.41

Rodina Moskva attack 1.32 + FC Sochi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Sochi scores more
44%
level
27%
Rodina Moskva scores more
29%

FC Sochi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Sochi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
Alan Agaev
39'
M. Kramarič
65'
R. Magal← R. Bart
67'
S. Kozhedub← A. Sokol
67'
M. Kané← A. Gordyushenko
74'
P. Maslov← K. Zaika
74'
A. Makarov← P. Meleshin
76'
M. Burlakov← A. Yushin
77'
Martin Kramarič
84'
V. Litvinov← M. Kramarič
84'
A. Shushenachev← V. Pisarskiy
84'
M. Danilin← A. Kalmykov
84'
M. Ryadno← A. Agaev

Statistics

FCRodina
Discipline
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0

First League: FC Sochi 1–0 Rodina Moskva

FC Sochi beat Rodina Moskva 1-0 in First League on October 19, 2024.

Goals: M. Kramarič (39').

The match was played at Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht in Sochi.