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Rodina Moskva vs Dolgoprudny — Second League - Group 2 2020

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Dolgoprudny
Dolgoprudny
4/2/2021Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Yantar'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rodina Moskva37%
×Draw25%
Dolgoprudny39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva
1.46
Dolgoprudny
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva
2.00
Dolgoprudny
1.23

allows per match

Rodina Moskva
1.77
Dolgoprudny
0.92

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par
Dolgoprudny+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Dolgoprudny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw
61%
Rodina Moskva or Dolgoprudny
75%
Draw or Dolgoprudny
63%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
17%
Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
77%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
43%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
18%
Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
78%
Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
44%
Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
49%
Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Dolgoprudny away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 2.00 + Dolgoprudny defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dolgoprudny attack 1.23 + Rodina Moskva defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more
37%
level
25%
Dolgoprudny scores more
39%

Dolgoprudny at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodina Moskva vs Dolgoprudny

Dolgoprudny beat Rodina Moskva 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on April 2, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Yantar' in Moskva.