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Dolgoprudny vs Rodina Moskva — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dolgoprudny
Dolgoprudny
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
10/18/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Stadion Salyut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dolgoprudny54%
×Draw23%
Rodina Moskva22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dolgoprudny
1.78
Rodina Moskva
1.05

Dolgoprudny creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dolgoprudny
1.93
Rodina Moskva
1.71

allows per match

Dolgoprudny
0.40
Rodina Moskva
1.64

finishing

Dolgoprudny+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dolgoprudny ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dolgoprudny or draw
78%
Dolgoprudny or Rodina Moskva
77%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
46%

Winning margin

Dolgoprudny wins by 2+
30%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dolgoprudny 1+ goals
83%
Dolgoprudny 2+ goals
53%
Dolgoprudny 3+ goals
26%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
65%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
28%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Dolgoprudny (draw refunded)
71%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dolgoprudny at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dolgoprudny attack 1.93 + Rodina Moskva defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.78

Rodina Moskva attack 1.71 + Dolgoprudny defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Dolgoprudny scores more
54%
level
23%
Rodina Moskva scores more
22%

Dolgoprudny at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dolgoprudny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dolgoprudny vs Rodina Moskva

Dolgoprudny beat Rodina Moskva 2-1 in Second League - Group 2 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut in Dolgoprudnyj.