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Rodina Moskva vs Dinamo Makhachkala — First League 2018

Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
10/23/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Sapsan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rodina Moskva45%
×Draw30%
Dinamo Makhachkala25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva
1.18
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.80

Rodina Moskva creates 47% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva
1.53
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.68

allows per match

Rodina Moskva
0.91
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.82

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw
75%
Rodina Moskva or Dinamo Makhachkala
70%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
55%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
19%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
69%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
33%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
12%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
55%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
19%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
64%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.91 · 68 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.68, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 1.53 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.18

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.68 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more
45%
level
30%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
25%

Rodina Moskva at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodina Moskva vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Rodina Moskva and Dinamo Makhachkala drew 0-0 in First League on October 23, 2023.

The match was played at Sapsan Arena in Moskva.