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Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rodina Moskva — First League 2018

Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
5/18/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 33Anzhi-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Dinamo Makhachkala38%
×Draw31%
Rodina Moskva31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.06
Rodina Moskva
0.91

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 16% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
1.15
Rodina Moskva
1.32

allows per match

Dinamo Makhachkala
0.50
Rodina Moskva
0.97

finishing

Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Makhachkala ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Dinamo Makhachkala or draw
69%
Dinamo Makhachkala or Rodina Moskva
69%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
62%

Winning margin

Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
15%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
65%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
9%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
60%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
23%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
56%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Makhachkala at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.50 · 34 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.32, concedes 0.97 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.15 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.06

Rodina Moskva attack 1.32 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
38%
level
31%
Rodina Moskva scores more
31%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Rodina Moskva

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Rodina Moskva 2-0 in First League on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Anzhi-Arena in Kaspiysk.