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Rodina Moskva II vs Forte Taganrog — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
7/16/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 1Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rodina Moskva II61%
×Draw22%
Forte Taganrog16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva II
1.86
Forte Taganrog
0.84

Rodina Moskva II creates 121% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.72
Forte Taganrog
1.00

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II
0.68
Forte Taganrog
2.00

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par
Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Forte Taganrog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw
84%
Rodina Moskva II or Forte Taganrog
78%
Draw or Forte Taganrog
39%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
36%
Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
84%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
55%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
28%
Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
57%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
21%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
79%
Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.72 + Forte Taganrog defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Forte Taganrog attack 1.00 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more
61%
level
22%
Forte Taganrog scores more
16%

Rodina Moskva II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Rodina Moskva II 2–1 Forte Taganrog

Rodina Moskva II beat Forte Taganrog 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on July 16, 2023.

The match was played at Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina in Moskva.