Forte Taganrog vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 9+ matches
Forte Taganrog44%
Rodina Moskva II29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Forte Taganrog creates 29% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Forte Taganrog ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Forte Taganrog at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches
Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Forte Taganrog attack 1.67 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44
Rodina Moskva II attack 1.24 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.12
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Forte Taganrog at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Dinamo Vladivostok
Dinamo Bryansk
Urozhay
Dinamo Kirov
Alaniya VladikavkazRodina Moskva II
Kaluga
Amkar
Zenit 2
Dinamo Moskva II
Torpedo Miass
Tyumen
Irtysh Omsk
Dinamo Stavropol
Avangard Kursk
MuromIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Forte Taganrog host Rodina Moskva II on Saturday, 11 November 2023 at 11:00. The match is part of the Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023/2024 season.
Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Forte Taganrog 2–0 Rodina Moskva II
Forte Taganrog beat Rodina Moskva II 2-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on November 11, 2023.
The match was played at Forte Arena Taganrog in Taganrog.