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Rodina Moskva II vs FK Sokol Saratov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
5/22/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 9Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rodina Moskva II32%
×Draw28%
FK Sokol Saratov40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva II
1.07
FK Sokol Saratov
1.22

FK Sokol Saratov creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 48 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.41
FK Sokol Saratov
1.38

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.06
FK Sokol Saratov
0.73

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par
FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

FK Sokol Saratov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw
60%
Rodina Moskva II or FK Sokol Saratov
72%
Draw or FK Sokol Saratov
68%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
12%
FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
66%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
29%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
9%
FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
70%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
34%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
45%
FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

FK Sokol Saratov away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.41 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.07

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.38 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more
32%
level
28%
FK Sokol Saratov scores more
40%

FK Sokol Saratov at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FK Sokol Saratov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rodina Moskva II vs FK Sokol Saratov

FK Sokol Saratov beat Rodina Moskva II 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on May 22, 2023.

The match was played at Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina in Moskva.