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FK Sokol Saratov vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League - Group 3 2020

FK Sokol Saratov
FK Sokol Saratov
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
4/22/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 4Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

FK Sokol Saratov34%
×Draw28%
Rodina Moskva II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Sokol Saratov
1.14
Rodina Moskva II
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

FK Sokol Saratov
1.75
Rodina Moskva II
1.71

allows per match

FK Sokol Saratov
0.77
Rodina Moskva II
0.53

finishing

FK Sokol Saratov+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Sokol Saratov ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FK Sokol Saratov or draw
61%
FK Sokol Saratov or Rodina Moskva II
72%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
66%

Winning margin

FK Sokol Saratov wins by 2+
14%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

FK Sokol Saratov 1+ goals
68%
FK Sokol Saratov 2+ goals
32%
FK Sokol Saratov 3+ goals
11%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
71%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
35%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FK Sokol Saratov (draw refunded)
47%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Sokol Saratov at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.77 · 48 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Sokol Saratov attack 1.75 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.14

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.71 + FK Sokol Saratov defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FK Sokol Saratov scores more
34%
level
28%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
39%

Rodina Moskva II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Sokol Saratov vs Rodina Moskva II

FK Sokol Saratov beat Rodina Moskva II 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Lokomotiv in Saratov.