Rodina Moskva II 1–0 Avangard Kursk: Result & Stats

Rodina Moskva II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Avangard Kursk

9/16/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 10Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rodina Moskva II50%

×Draw28%

Avangard Kursk22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodina Moskva IIExpected goals in this matchAvangard Kursk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.81

Rodina Moskva II

1.36

Avangard Kursk

0.81

Rodina Moskva II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 16 away

1.72

creates per match

0.94

0.68

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II

1.72

Avangard Kursk

0.94

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II

0.68

Avangard Kursk

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Avangard Kursk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw

78%

Rodina Moskva II or Avangard Kursk

72%

Draw or Avangard Kursk

50%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+

24%

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals

74%

Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals

39%

Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals

16%

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

56%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

19%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)

69%

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Avangard Kursk away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.72 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Avangard Kursk attack 0.94 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more

50%

level

28%

Avangard Kursk scores more

22%

Rodina Moskva II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff