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Avangard Kursk vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
10/15/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Avangard Kursk28%
×Draw27%
Rodina Moskva II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.02
Rodina Moskva II
1.36

Rodina Moskva II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 17 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.50
Rodina Moskva II
1.71

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.02
Rodina Moskva II
0.53

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
55%
Avangard Kursk or Rodina Moskva II
73%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
72%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
10%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
64%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
27%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
8%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
74%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
39%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
39%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.50 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.02

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.71 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
28%
level
27%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
45%

Rodina Moskva II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avangard Kursk vs Rodina Moskva II

Avangard Kursk and Rodina Moskva II drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 3 on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy in Kursk.