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Rodina Moskva II vs Amkar — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Amkar
Amkar
10/21/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 15Stadion Rodina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rodina Moskva II51%
×Draw25%
Amkar23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodina Moskva II
1.58
Amkar
0.98

Rodina Moskva II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

creates per match

Rodina Moskva II
1.72
Amkar
1.28

allows per match

Rodina Moskva II
0.68
Amkar
1.44

finishing

Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par
Amkar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva II ↓

Amkar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva II or draw
77%
Rodina Moskva II or Amkar
75%
Draw or Amkar
49%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
27%
Amkar wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
79%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
47%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
21%
Amkar 1+ goals
62%
Amkar 2+ goals
26%
Amkar 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
69%
Amkar (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva II at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.68 · 25 matches

Amkar away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.72 + Amkar defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.58

Amkar attack 1.28 + Rodina Moskva II defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rodina Moskva II scores more
51%
level
25%
Amkar scores more
23%

Rodina Moskva II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rodina Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Rodina Moskva II 2–1 Amkar

Rodina Moskva II beat Amkar 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Rodina in Khimki.