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Amkar vs Rodina Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Amkar
Amkar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rodina Moskva II
Rodina Moskva II
8/27/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 7Stadion Zvezda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Amkar42%
×Draw27%
Rodina Moskva II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amkar
1.32
Rodina Moskva II
1.09

Amkar creates 21% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

creates per match

Amkar
1.44
Rodina Moskva II
1.24

allows per match

Amkar
0.94
Rodina Moskva II
1.20

finishing

Amkar+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amkar ↓

Rodina Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Amkar or draw
69%
Amkar or Rodina Moskva II
73%
Draw or Rodina Moskva II
58%

Winning margin

Amkar wins by 2+
19%
Rodina Moskva II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Amkar 1+ goals
73%
Amkar 2+ goals
38%
Amkar 3+ goals
15%
Rodina Moskva II 1+ goals
66%
Rodina Moskva II 2+ goals
30%
Rodina Moskva II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Amkar (draw refunded)
58%
Rodina Moskva II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amkar at home — creates 1.44, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Rodina Moskva II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amkar attack 1.44 + Rodina Moskva II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Rodina Moskva II attack 1.24 + Amkar defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Amkar scores more
42%
level
27%
Rodina Moskva II scores more
31%

Amkar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Amkar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amkar vs Rodina Moskva II

Amkar and Rodina Moskva II drew 0-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Zvezda in Perm'.