Rodez 1–1 RED Star FC 93: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Rodez

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

RED Star FC 93

I. Balde 28'

G. Haag 33'

1/30/2026

Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade Paul-Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Rodez42%

×Draw27%

RED Star FC 9331%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RodezExpected goals in this matchRED Star FC 93

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.10

Rodez

1.32

RED Star FC 93

1.10

Rodez creates 20% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 53 away

1.32

creates per match

1.04

1.17

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Rodez

1.32

RED Star FC 93

1.04

allows per match

Rodez

1.17

RED Star FC 93

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par

RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

RED Star FC 93 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rodez or draw

69%

Rodez or RED Star FC 93

73%

Draw or RED Star FC 93

58%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+

19%

RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals

73%

Rodez 2+ goals

38%

Rodez 3+ goals

15%

RED Star FC 93 1+ goals

67%

RED Star FC 93 2+ goals

30%

RED Star FC 93 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)

57%

RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.17 · 124 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.32 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.32 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.04 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rodez scores more

42%

level

27%

RED Star FC 93 scores more

31%

Rodez at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

B. Danger

RED Star FC 93 · D

7.9

Match Events

28'

I. Balde↳ M. Saka

33'

G. Haag

57'

S. E. Khaoui← G. Trani

57'

A. Hachem← D. Durand

60'

Clément Jolibois

65'

W. Younoussa← S. Benchamma

65'

A. Trouillet← M. Saka

71'

K. Nagera← T. Arconte

72'

72'

84'

87'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RodezRED

Overview

39%Possession61%

8Total Shots10

5Corners2

19Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots10

4On Target4

3Off Target5

1Blocked1

4Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

295Total Passes468

218Accurate Passes384

74%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

19Fouls8

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Rodez vs RED Star FC 93

Rodez and RED Star FC 93 drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on January 30, 2026.

Goals: I. Balde (28'), G. Haag (33').

RED Star FC 93 controlled possession (61%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade Paul-Lignon in Rodez.

Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Rodez vs RED Star FC 93