Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rodez vs RED Star FC 93 — Ligue 2 2018

Rodez
Rodez
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
RED Star FC 93
RED Star FC 93
1/3/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 17Stade Paul Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Rodez42%
×Draw27%
RED Star FC 9331%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodez
1.32
RED Star FC 93
1.10

Rodez creates 20% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 53 away

creates per match

Rodez
1.32
RED Star FC 93
1.04

allows per match

Rodez
1.17
RED Star FC 93
1.32

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par
RED Star FC 93+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

RED Star FC 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rodez or draw
69%
Rodez or RED Star FC 93
73%
Draw or RED Star FC 93
58%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+
19%
RED Star FC 93 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals
73%
Rodez 2+ goals
38%
Rodez 3+ goals
15%
RED Star FC 93 1+ goals
67%
RED Star FC 93 2+ goals
30%
RED Star FC 93 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)
57%
RED Star FC 93 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.17 · 124 matches

RED Star FC 93 away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.32 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.32 + RED Star FC 93 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.32

RED Star FC 93 attack 1.04 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rodez scores more
42%
level
27%
RED Star FC 93 scores more
31%

Rodez at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Rodez 0–2 RED Star FC 93

RED Star FC 93 beat Rodez 2-0 in Ligue 2 on January 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Paul Lignon in Rodez.