Rodez 2–0 Clermont Foot: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Rodez

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Clermont Foot

P. Ruffaut 90+4'

F. David 77'

2/5/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade Paul Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Rodez40%

×Draw28%

Clermont Foot32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RodezExpected goals in this matchClermont Foot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.08

Rodez

1.23

Clermont Foot

1.08

Rodez creates 14% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 98 away

1.31

creates per match

0.99

1.17

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Rodez

1.31

Clermont Foot

0.99

allows per match

Rodez

1.17

Clermont Foot

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par

Clermont Foot+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Clermont Foot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rodez or draw

68%

Rodez or Clermont Foot

72%

Draw or Clermont Foot

60%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+

17%

Clermont Foot wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals

71%

Rodez 2+ goals

35%

Rodez 3+ goals

13%

Clermont Foot 1+ goals

66%

Clermont Foot 2+ goals

29%

Clermont Foot 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)

55%

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 122 matches

Clermont Foot away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.16 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.31 + Clermont Foot defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Clermont Foot attack 0.99 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rodez scores more

40%

level

28%

Clermont Foot scores more

32%

Rodez at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

P. Ruffaut

Rodez · M

7.6

Match Events

66'

J. Berthomier← J. Iglesias

76'

Johan Gastien

77'

F. David

78'

V. Henry← A. Kerouedan

79'

D. Douline← N. Dieng

79'

J. Tell← J. Allevinah

85'

A. Seidu← V. NSimba

85'

S. Chader← J. Dossou

88'

A. Ouhafsa← U. Bonnet

88'

M. Dembélé← F. David

90+3'

P. Ruffaut← J. Ponceau

90+4'

P. Ruffaut

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RodezClermont

Overview

32%Possession68%

8Total Shots9

1Corners5

15Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots9

3On Target2

5Off Target3

0Blocked4

3Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

32%Possession68%

283Total Passes581

185Accurate Passes478

65%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls17

0Yellow Cards1