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Clermont Foot vs Rodez — Ligue 2 2018

Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rodez
Rodez
Y. Diaby 89'
A. Abdallah 45+3'
12/13/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Gabriel-Montpied

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Clermont Foot43%
×Draw27%
Rodez30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clermont Foot
1.33
Rodez
1.07

Clermont Foot creates 24% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 122 away

creates per match

Clermont Foot
1.31
Rodez
1.11

allows per match

Clermont Foot
1.03
Rodez
1.34

finishing

Clermont Foot+0.00on par
Rodez+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clermont Foot ↓

Rodez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Clermont Foot or draw
70%
Clermont Foot or Rodez
73%
Draw or Rodez
57%

Winning margin

Clermont Foot wins by 2+
20%
Rodez wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Clermont Foot 1+ goals
74%
Clermont Foot 2+ goals
38%
Clermont Foot 3+ goals
15%
Rodez 1+ goals
66%
Rodez 2+ goals
29%
Rodez 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Clermont Foot (draw refunded)
59%
Rodez (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clermont Foot at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.03 · 94 matches

Rodez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.34 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clermont Foot attack 1.31 + Rodez defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rodez attack 1.11 + Clermont Foot defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Clermont Foot scores more
43%
level
27%
Rodez scores more
30%

Clermont Foot at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Clermont Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
L. MpasiRodezRodez · G
8.0

Match Events

39'
Ibrahima Baldé
44'
A. Ngouyamsa← É. Vandenabeele
45+3'
A. Abdallah↳ W. Taïbi
63'
M. Bassouamina← O. Diop
63'
Y. Diaby← M. Baaloudj
75'
Y. Armougom← C. Konaté
77'
D. Jean← I. Baldé
83'
Tawfik Bentayeb
85'
D. Mazou-Sacko← T. Bentayeb
85'
N. Galves← A. Abdallah
89'
Y. Diaby↳ Y. Armougom
90+4'
I. Fakili← M. Douane
90+4'
T. Diagouraga← H. Keïta

Possession

61%Clermont

Shots

17Clermont

Pass accuracy

56%Clermont

Statistics

ClermontRodez
Overview
61%Possession39%
17Total Shots13
4Corners10
8Fouls18
Shots
17Total Shots13
7On Target6
6Off Target3
4Blocked4
10Inside Box11
7Outside Box2
Passing
61%Possession39%
537Total Passes331
458Accurate Passes226
85%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
8Fouls18
0Yellow Cards2
2Offsides0

Ligue 2: Clermont Foot 1–1 Rodez

Clermont Foot and Rodez drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on December 13, 2024.

Goals: A. Abdallah (45+3'), Y. Diaby (89').

Clermont Foot controlled possession (61%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied in Clermont-Ferrand.