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Rodez vs Ajaccio — Ligue 2 2018

Rodez
Rodez
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ajaccio
Ajaccio
A. Hountondji 6'
G. Haag 2'
5/17/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 38Stade Paul Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Rodez43%
×Draw28%
Ajaccio28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodez
1.27
Ajaccio
0.96

Rodez creates 32% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 104 away

creates per match

Rodez
1.31
Ajaccio
0.76

allows per match

Rodez
1.17
Ajaccio
1.24

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par
Ajaccio+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Ajaccio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rodez or draw
72%
Rodez or Ajaccio
72%
Draw or Ajaccio
57%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+
20%
Ajaccio wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals
72%
Rodez 2+ goals
36%
Rodez 3+ goals
14%
Ajaccio 1+ goals
62%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
25%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)
61%
Ajaccio (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 122 matches

Ajaccio away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.24 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.31 + Ajaccio defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ajaccio attack 0.76 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rodez scores more
43%
level
28%
Ajaccio scores more
28%

Rodez at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
S. Raux-YaoRodezRodez · D
8.0

Match Events

2'
G. Haag↳ B. Danger
6'
A. Hountondji↳ S. Raux-Yao
46'
B. Touré← C. Ibayi
50'
Clement Vidal
59'
A. Fosse← M. Barreto
65'
R. Lipinski← A. Abdallah
65'
W. Younoussa← G. Haag
71'
C. Bayala← M. Soumano
74'
T. Arconte← A. Hountondji
74'
L. Buadés← D. Sylla
86'
Y. Verdier← K. Corredor

Possession

45%Rodez

Shots

12Rodez

Pass accuracy

49%Rodez

Statistics

RodezAjaccio
Overview
45%Possession55%
12Total Shots4
7Corners4
11Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots4
6On Target3
2Off Target1
4Blocked0
9Inside Box1
3Outside Box3
Passing
45%Possession55%
434Total Passes559
364Accurate Passes485
84%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides3

Rodez 2 – 0 Ajaccio

Rodez beat Ajaccio 2-0 in Ligue 2 on May 17, 2024.

Goals: G. Haag (2'), A. Hountondji (6').

Ajaccio controlled possession (55%) and registered 4 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade Paul Lignon in Rodez.