Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ajaccio vs Rodez — Ligue 2 2018

Ajaccio
Ajaccio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rodez
Rodez
M. Barreto 79'
8/16/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 1Stade Michel-Moretti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Ajaccio43%
×Draw29%
Rodez28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajaccio
1.24
Rodez
0.94

Ajaccio creates 32% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 122 away

creates per match

Ajaccio
1.14
Rodez
1.11

allows per match

Ajaccio
0.77
Rodez
1.34

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par
Rodez+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Rodez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw
72%
Ajaccio or Rodez
71%
Draw or Rodez
57%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+
19%
Rodez wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals
71%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
35%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
13%
Rodez 1+ goals
61%
Rodez 2+ goals
24%
Rodez 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)
61%
Rodez (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.77 · 98 matches

Rodez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.34 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.14 + Rodez defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.24

Rodez attack 1.11 + Ajaccio defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ajaccio scores more
43%
level
29%
Rodez scores more
28%

Ajaccio at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
C. VidalAjaccioAjaccio · D
7.9

Match Events

50'
Clement Vidal
60'
V. Jacob← I. Chegra
60'
C. Ibayi← Y. Touzghar
71'
M. Soumano← B. Touré
71'
T. Mangani← M. Puch-Herrantz
73'
M. Achi← W. Younoussa
74'
I. Baldé← Y. Verdier
79'
M. Barreto
86'
A. Pelon← M. Bouchouari
86'
C. Doumbia← A. Abdallah
90+6'
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro

Possession

56%Ajaccio

Shots

8Ajaccio

Pass accuracy

52%Ajaccio

Statistics

AjaccioRodez
Overview
56%Possession44%
8Total Shots10
3Corners4
9Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots10
2On Target3
4Off Target5
2Blocked2
2Inside Box4
6Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
432Total Passes336
354Accurate Passes254
82%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls15
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides3

Ligue 2: Ajaccio 1–0 Rodez

Ajaccio beat Rodez 1-0 in Ligue 2 on August 16, 2024.

Goals: M. Barreto (79').

Ajaccio controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Michel-Moretti in Ajaccio.