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Rodelindo Román vs Real San Joaquín — Segunda División 2020

Rodelindo Román
Rodelindo Román
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Real San Joaquín
Real San Joaquín
9/25/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 21Estadio Municipal de Colina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Rodelindo Román46%
×Draw27%
Real San Joaquín27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodelindo Román
1.39
Real San Joaquín
1.00

Rodelindo Román creates 39% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 55 away

creates per match

Rodelindo Román
1.00
Real San Joaquín
0.95

allows per match

Rodelindo Román
1.05
Real San Joaquín
1.78

finishing

Rodelindo Román+0.00on par
Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodelindo Román ↓

Real San Joaquín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rodelindo Román or draw
73%
Rodelindo Román or Real San Joaquín
73%
Draw or Real San Joaquín
54%

Winning margin

Rodelindo Román wins by 2+
22%
Real San Joaquín wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rodelindo Román 1+ goals
75%
Rodelindo Román 2+ goals
40%
Rodelindo Román 3+ goals
16%
Real San Joaquín 1+ goals
63%
Real San Joaquín 2+ goals
26%
Real San Joaquín 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rodelindo Román (draw refunded)
63%
Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodelindo Román at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

Real San Joaquín away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodelindo Román attack 1.00 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Real San Joaquín attack 0.95 + Rodelindo Román defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rodelindo Román scores more
46%
level
27%
Real San Joaquín scores more
27%

Rodelindo Román at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rodelindo Román will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Rodelindo Román 3–2 Real San Joaquín

Rodelindo Román beat Real San Joaquín 3-2 in Segunda División on September 25, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Colina in Colina.