Real San Joaquín 1–2 Rodelindo Román

Real San Joaquín

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rodelindo Román

6/12/2022

Segunda División · Round 10Estadio Municipal de La Pintana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Real San Joaquín40%

×Draw26%

Rodelindo Román35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real San JoaquínExpected goals in this matchRodelindo Román

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.31

Real San Joaquín

1.42

Rodelindo Román

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 22 away

1.20

creates per match

1.27

1.35

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Real San Joaquín

1.20

Rodelindo Román

1.27

allows per match

Real San Joaquín

1.35

Rodelindo Román

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real San Joaquín+0.00on par

Rodelindo Román+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real San Joaquín ↓

Rodelindo Román →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Real San Joaquín or draw

65%

Real San Joaquín or Rodelindo Román

74%

Draw or Rodelindo Román

60%

Winning margin

Real San Joaquín wins by 2+

19%

Rodelindo Román wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real San Joaquín 1+ goals

76%

Real San Joaquín 2+ goals

41%

Real San Joaquín 3+ goals

17%

Rodelindo Román 1+ goals

73%

Rodelindo Román 2+ goals

38%

Rodelindo Román 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real San Joaquín (draw refunded)

53%

Rodelindo Román (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real San Joaquín at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 55 matches

Rodelindo Román away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real San Joaquín attack 1.20 + Rodelindo Román defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.42

Rodelindo Román attack 1.27 + Real San Joaquín defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real San Joaquín scores more

40%

level

26%

Rodelindo Román scores more

35%

Real San Joaquín at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real San Joaquín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Real San Joaquín 1–2 Rodelindo Román

Rodelindo Román beat Real San Joaquín 2-1 in Segunda División on June 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de La Pintana in Santiago de Chile.

Real San Joaquín vs Rodelindo Román — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Segunda División: Real San Joaquín 1–2 Rodelindo Román