Roda 2–2 Willem II: Result & Stats | Eerste Divisie

Roda

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Willem II

B. Reith 49'

D. Vente 13'

J. Bosch 50'

E. Kabangu 44'

5/19/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 38Parkstad Limburg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Roda41%

×Draw22%

Willem II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RodaExpected goals in this matchWillem II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.69

Roda

1.79

Willem II

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.88

creates per match

1.73

1.64

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Roda

1.88

Willem II

1.73

allows per match

Roda

1.64

Willem II

1.70

-0.88scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Roda-0.88scores less

Willem II-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Willem II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Roda or draw

63%

Roda or Willem II

78%

Draw or Willem II

59%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+

21%

Willem II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals

83%

Roda 2+ goals

53%

Roda 3+ goals

26%

Willem II 1+ goals

82%

Willem II 2+ goals

50%

Willem II 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)

53%

Willem II (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.64 · 8 matches

Willem II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.70 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.88 + Willem II defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

Willem II attack 1.73 + Roda defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Roda scores more

41%

level

22%

Willem II scores more

37%

Roda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

J. Bosch

Willem II · M

8.2

Match Events

13'

D. Vente↳ P. Sieben

44'

E. Kabangu↳ J. Bosch

49'

B. Reith↳ B. Limbombe

50'

J. Bosch

55'

Guus Joppen

59'

X. Lambrix← S. Ouaissa

59'

J. Schuurman← P. Sieben

64'

V. Vermeulen← L. Owusu

64'

J. Bokila← M. de Leeuw

72'

R. Meerveld← Pol Llonch

72'

T. Oosting← M. Svensson

77'

Valentino Vermeulen

80'

A. van der Heide← D. Vente

80'

J. Hornkamp← E. Kabangu

81'

L. Daneels← B. Limbombe

87'

Jesse Schuurman

87'

T. van de Pavert← T. Bijleveld

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RodaWillem

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots17

3Corners8

11Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots17

4On Target7

3Off Target8

2Blocked2

7Inside Box11

2Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

376Total Passes515

272Accurate Passes429

72%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Eerste Divisie: Roda 2–2 Willem II

Roda and Willem II drew 2-2 in Eerste Divisie on May 19, 2023.

Goals: D. Vente (13'), E. Kabangu (44'), B. Reith (49'), J. Bosch (50').

Willem II controlled possession (60%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Kerkrade.

Roda vs Willem II — Eerste Divisie 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eerste Divisie: Roda 2–2 Willem II