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Roda vs Racing CF Benidorm — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Roda
Roda
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Racing CF Benidorm
Racing CF Benidorm
10/20/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 7Ciutat Esportiva Pamesa Ceramica Campo 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Roda44%
×Draw28%
Racing CF Benidorm28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.34
Racing CF Benidorm
1.02

Roda creates 31% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 17 away

creates per match

Roda
1.28
Racing CF Benidorm
1.06

allows per match

Roda
0.99
Racing CF Benidorm
1.41

finishing

Roda+0.00on par
Racing CF Benidorm+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Racing CF Benidorm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Roda or draw
72%
Roda or Racing CF Benidorm
72%
Draw or Racing CF Benidorm
56%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
20%
Racing CF Benidorm wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
74%
Roda 2+ goals
39%
Roda 3+ goals
15%
Racing CF Benidorm 1+ goals
64%
Racing CF Benidorm 2+ goals
27%
Racing CF Benidorm 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
61%
Racing CF Benidorm (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Racing CF Benidorm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.28 + Racing CF Benidorm defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.34

Racing CF Benidorm attack 1.06 + Roda defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Roda scores more
44%
level
28%
Racing CF Benidorm scores more
28%

Roda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roda vs Racing CF Benidorm

Roda beat Racing CF Benidorm 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Ciutat Esportiva Pamesa Ceramica Campo 3 in Vila-real.