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Racing CF Benidorm vs Roda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Racing CF Benidorm
Racing CF Benidorm
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Roda
Roda
3/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 24Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Racing CF Benidorm29%
×Draw28%
Roda43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing CF Benidorm
1.00
Roda
1.27

Roda creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 111 away

creates per match

Racing CF Benidorm
1.06
Roda
0.94

allows per match

Racing CF Benidorm
1.59
Roda
0.95

finishing

Racing CF Benidorm+0.00on par
Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing CF Benidorm ↓

Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Racing CF Benidorm or draw
57%
Racing CF Benidorm or Roda
72%
Draw or Roda
71%

Winning margin

Racing CF Benidorm wins by 2+
11%
Roda wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Racing CF Benidorm 1+ goals
63%
Racing CF Benidorm 2+ goals
26%
Racing CF Benidorm 3+ goals
8%
Roda 1+ goals
72%
Roda 2+ goals
36%
Roda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Racing CF Benidorm (draw refunded)
41%
Roda (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing CF Benidorm at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Roda away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing CF Benidorm attack 1.06 + Roda defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Roda attack 0.94 + Racing CF Benidorm defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Racing CF Benidorm scores more
29%
level
28%
Roda scores more
43%

Roda at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Racing CF Benidorm 3–3 Roda

Racing CF Benidorm and Roda drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Guillermo Amor in Benidorm.