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Roda vs Jove Español — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Roda
Roda
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Jove Español
Jove Español
2/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 20Ciutat Esportiva Pamesa Ceramica Campo 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Roda44%
×Draw29%
Jove Español28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.25
Jove Español
0.93

Roda creates 34% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 110 away

creates per match

Roda
1.28
Jove Español
0.86

allows per match

Roda
0.99
Jove Español
1.21

finishing

Roda+0.00on par
Jove Español+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Jove Español →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Roda or draw
72%
Roda or Jove Español
71%
Draw or Jove Español
56%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
20%
Jove Español wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
71%
Roda 2+ goals
36%
Roda 3+ goals
13%
Jove Español 1+ goals
61%
Jove Español 2+ goals
24%
Jove Español 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
61%
Jove Español (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Jove Español away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.28 + Jove Español defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.25

Jove Español attack 0.86 + Roda defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Roda scores more
44%
level
29%
Jove Español scores more
28%

Roda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roda vs Jove Español

Jove Español beat Roda 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Ciutat Esportiva Pamesa Ceramica Campo 3 in Vila-real.