Jove Español 2–1 Roda: Result & Stats

Jove Español

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Roda

3/3/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 23Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Jove Español37%

×Draw31%

Roda32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jove EspañolExpected goals in this matchRoda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.94

Jove Español

1.02

Roda

0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 111 away

1.10

creates per match

0.94

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Jove Español

1.10

Roda

0.94

allows per match

Jove Español

0.94

Roda

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jove Español+0.00on par

Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jove Español ↓

Roda →

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Jove Español or draw

68%

Jove Español or Roda

69%

Draw or Roda

63%

Winning margin

Jove Español wins by 2+

14%

Roda wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jove Español 1+ goals

64%

Jove Español 2+ goals

27%

Jove Español 3+ goals

Roda 1+ goals

61%

Roda 2+ goals

24%

Roda 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Jove Español (draw refunded)

53%

Roda (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jove Español at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.94 · 110 matches

Roda away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jove Español attack 1.10 + Roda defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Roda attack 0.94 + Jove Español defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jove Español scores more

37%

level

31%

Roda scores more

32%

Jove Español at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jove Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff