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Roda vs Jong Utrecht — Eerste Divisie 2018

Roda
Roda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jong Utrecht
Jong Utrecht
11/1/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 14Parkstad Limburg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Roda56%
×Draw22%
Jong Utrecht23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roda
1.96
Jong Utrecht
1.17

Roda creates 68% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 147 away

creates per match

Roda
1.76
Jong Utrecht
1.07

allows per match

Roda
1.27
Jong Utrecht
2.16

finishing

Roda+0.00on par
Jong Utrecht+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roda ↓

Jong Utrecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Roda or draw
77%
Roda or Jong Utrecht
78%
Draw or Jong Utrecht
44%

Winning margin

Roda wins by 2+
33%
Jong Utrecht wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Roda 1+ goals
86%
Roda 2+ goals
58%
Roda 3+ goals
31%
Jong Utrecht 1+ goals
69%
Jong Utrecht 2+ goals
33%
Jong Utrecht 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Roda (draw refunded)
71%
Jong Utrecht (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.27 · 148 matches

Jong Utrecht away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roda attack 1.76 + Jong Utrecht defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.96

Jong Utrecht attack 1.07 + Roda defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Roda scores more
56%
level
22%
Jong Utrecht scores more
23%

Roda at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roda vs Jong Utrecht

Roda and Jong Utrecht drew 1-1 in Eerste Divisie on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Kerkrade.